11/03/2004

In the words of former CIA Director George Tenet, this election was supposed to be a "slam-dunk". There is a sitting President with an approval rating at or below 50% while a majority of the country believe it is on the wrong track. The economy is stagnant with a deficit going through the roof. Everyone is worried about the war in Iraq and the larger war on terror. Yet even with this perfect storm of bad news for President George W. Bush, he is the winner and still President of the United States, shutting out the valiant effort put forth by Senator John Kerry and soon-to-be former Senator John Edwards.

As the tone of the above paragraph suggests, I wasn't anticipating a 3.5 million popular vote victory for Bush; a win to be sure, but not by this margin. It should increase his chances at creating the vision he wants, especially with the gains he made in the House and Senate. How did he do it? Turnout was high. While turnout would traditionally favor the Democrats, Republicans, specifically Karl Rove, took the unorthodox route and believed the only way they would win is to focus on getting more Republicans to vote for them and just hoping swing voters would come along for the ride. So while Democrats succeeded at getting out the people they wanted (1.5 million more people under the age of 30 voted compared to 2000), their votes were cancelled out and then some by older conservative voters. I voted, inexplicably waiting 30 minutes to exercise my right to vote. But from the sounds of it, I was one of the lucky ones. The issue on a plurality of voters' minds? Moral issues. What is a moral issue? Seems to me it was gay marriage, abortion, and gun control among others. And among those concerned with moral issues, Bush won these voters by a margin close to 4 to 1. Bush also made gains with minorities. No doubt he didn't win them, but improvement over 2000 counts. So even if he won 11% of African-Americans this time, it's still better than the pathetic 9% he won in 2000. Kerry for his part, failed in following through the two-step plan to unseat an incumbent. The first part was easy: unite against the opponent. The second part was harder: have people support you. People found it difficult to back Kerry as a Presidential candidate and as a result, it led to the high numbers of undecided voters up to Election Day, and eventually votes for Bush.

Looking ahead, for Bush to be truly successful in the next 4 years, he must take light of the facts. Half of those who voted for Kerry did it not for their candidate, but as a vote against Bush. A 51-48 majority in the popular vote gives Bush only a slight mandate at best. His 2000 promise to be a uniter and not a divider came true to an extent. Democrats united together like never before against Bush, but their best effort fell short, which created the largely unchanged political landscape seen in this year's electoral map. Bush faces the difficult task of uniting the country again, probably not as much as it was right after September 11th, but something better than the divide we see today. Arrogance is proving to be Bush's weak point and this "my way or the highway" mentality has not only distanced himself from the country, it has distanced the country from the rest of the world. Some may argue we've strayed too far already, never to be found again with this President in charge, but I hold out hope.

So what should be on the agenda? A policy to fix things at home and abroad. Bush needs to reach out to Democrats as he did early in the first term, highlighted by passage of the No Child Left Behind Act. In all likelihood, no progress can be made in capturing Bush's vision without the help of Democrats, whether it is another massive tax cut or trying to pass a Supreme Court justice through the confirmation process. The lines in today's victory speech mark a good start. While Democrats recover from this latest blow, it wouldn't hurt for Bush to show some compassion. Once accomplishments are made, the United States should turn its lonely eyes on the world. The growing isolationism needs to cease. Iraq, by all accounts, is a lost cause in the eyes of the world. No one is going to help us so we need an exit strategy soon. But there are other avenues where we can improve international relations including Iran, North Korea, and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Oh if we could use the blueprint on The West Wing for that last one.

It will only be until Bush racks up accomplishments at home and in the world when he can be considered a successful President deserving of a lasting legacy. Good luck.

As we look back on the 2004 Presidential election, some quotes from the entertaining Dan Rather as the night went on, taken from a CBS press release.

“Let’s hit these biscuits with a dab of gravy.”

“Don’t taunt the alligator until you cross the creek.”

“Bush is sweeping through the South like a big wheel through a cotton field.”

“This race is hotter than the devil’s anvil.”

“In some ways, George Bush’s lead is as thin as November ice.”

“It don’t mean a thing if they don’t get those swings.”

“Never gamble with a stranger, never bet against a Republican in Kansas.”

“When John Kerry wrote Santa Claus, he said give me [Kansas], please.”

“If you try to read the tea leaves before the cup is done, you can get yourself burned.”

On Florida presidential contest: “This race is hotter than a Times Square Rolex."

“It may yet come down to Iowa and John Kerry has a lead as thin as turnip soup.”

“Tough, rugged race out there, nasty enough to choke a buzzard.”

On the near dead heat in Iowa: “This race is hot enough to peel the paint off houses.”

“This situation in Ohio would give an aspirin a headache…”

“If this race gets any closer, someone’s going to have to call 911."

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