Showing how much of a loser I am, these were my Oscar predix. Getting half right is about average but getting 70% right means you're an expert. Two years ago, I was 14 for 24. Last year, I was 15 for 24. I probably won't get even close to that this year. It should be updated in the course of events during the ceremony with winners.

I actually beat last year's total by 1 again going 16 for 24. I really did not expect a Lord of the Rings sweep, hoping to think that Academy voters would show mercy on the other films but I'm afraid not.

Winners are in bold. Correct predictions will be boldly italicized, and incorrect predictions will be just italicized with descriptions on why I think things happened as they did.

Best Picture:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Director:
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Actor:
Sean Penn, Mystic River
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

Yes, Penn gave a fine performance and I have no complaints about this win but Murray seemed to have deserved it so much more over a performance Penn can do sleepwalking nowadays.

Best Actress:
Charlize Theron, Monster

Best Supporting Actor:
Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Best Supporting Actress:
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh & Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson
Mystic River, Brian Helgeland

The magic of LOTR is what's on screen, not on what was written. Do you remember anything of what was said?

Best Original Screenplay:
Lost in Translation, Sofia Coppola

Best Animated Feature:
Finding Nemo

Best Animated Short Film:
Harvie Krumpet
Destino

Never watched any of them, so it was a total guess.

Best Art Direction:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Cinematography:
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit

The Academy showed its liking of action films in this category, opting for the sea-faring M&C rather than the natural beauty of Seabiscuit.

Best Costume:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

M&C's costumes were far superior than anything LOTR offered, especially when you consider most of LOTR's characters were computer-generated, eliminating the need for costumes. Yet, LOTR took things by storm anyway.

Best Documentary Feature:
The Fog of War
Capturing the Friedmans

The Fog of War deals with a fascinating subject in Robert McNamara, who helped shape America's foreign policy during the Vietnam War and I wasn't surprised that it won, though Capturing the Friedmans dealt with more interesting subject matter.

Best Documentary Short Subject:
Chernobyl Heart

Best Editing:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
City of God

I'm sorry, any film more than 3 hours should not win a best editing award. That should be a rule of thumb.

Best Foreign Film:
The Barabarian Invasions

Best Live Action Short Film:
Two Soldiers
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)

Again, didn't watch any of these so it was also a total guess.

Best Make-up:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Original Score:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Howard Shore

Best Original Song:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, "Into the West" by Fran Walsh, Howard Shore, and Annie Lennox

Best Sound:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Sound Editing:
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Best Visual Effects:
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King