8/12/2003

Now that the major candidates have announced their intentions, I can write about it.

While I'll vote to recall the governor, voters shouldn't have been given this option in the first place. Recalls should only be used in the most extreme of circumstances and the reasons proponents have given for this one are a worsening budget and the slow reaction to the energy crisis, reasons to be outraged but not reasons to recall.

But now that's in the past. 1.7 million people signed a petition to recall Gray Davis and Californians now have the chance to do it. When coffers were full, Davis did his best on his one campaign issue that he focused on when he beat Dan Lundgren in 1998: education. He increased funding for it, proposed standardized tests to hold schools accountable and increased financial aid for college students. Everyone was pretty much happy. Then his first true test came in the form of the energy crisis. The previous governor, Pete Wilson, passed electricity deregulation, opening up competition. In the test site of San Diego, it was obvious it wasn't working as rates went up astronomically. As early 2001 approached, more power was needed from out-of-state sources, raising prices at a similar astronomical rate while threatening businesses and residents with rolling blackouts. Months after the crisis started, Davis finally retreated from his power conservation stance to finance power plant building and sign contracts that guaranteed the price of power. Today, power plants are still being built even though are power needs are being temporaily met and that price Davis got for power is running higher than the free market price today.

Then, the combo of 9/11 and the tech bubble bursting had a powerful effect on the economy. Capital gains revenue as well as taxes from the rich, both of which fund the majority of the state's budget, fell off dramatically, leading to the predicament we have today. Davis has shown he has a hands-off approach to the budget. He proclaims "I have a budget" and leaves it to the Legislature to figure things out. And that's no easy task with the recent implementation of term limits. There's simply no incentive for cooperation when you're going to be booted out in a few years. So, legislators do what's best for the party and/or their constituents, instead of reaching a compromise. Davis' failure to be more involved in reaching compromise (his only involvement seems to be weekly meetings with the leaders from each house) has resulted in late budgets that do no real good. Already, there's an $8 billion deficit next year.

So with such dire conditions, why would anyone want to be governor of the state? I wouldn't know, but 135 want to convince you that they're willing and able. The longshots include a porn star, a woman who sells thong underwear, a police officer, and just everyday people. How about the main cast?

Arnold Schwarzenegger is the front runner, garnering 25-45% support, depending on which poll you want to believe. His political experience is short, passing Prop 49, the after-school initiative. A social liberal with a conservative financial mind, Schwarzenegger is not being too forthcoming with information about positions on the issues. When asked about the budget, he said a plan would be forthcoming. When asked whether he'd release his taxes via satellite, he said he couldn't hear the question. While Davis attacks him for being a person of one-liners, at least he has a variety of one-liners. Davis says the same old thing about one liners and experience in every speech he gives. Until Schwarzenegger speaks out more, I won't be truly convinced of his political worthiness, but name recognition alone will probably get him to the top unless somebody proves he's not ready to be governor.

Two people wanting a second chance are Bill Simon and Peter Camejo, both of whom lost to Davis in the last election. Davis did an unheard of thing by attacking Richard Riordan during the Republican primary, allowing Simon, a businessman and political novice, to become the party's nominee. Davis is known for his ruthless campaigns, attacking a candidate from all sides. This was especially noted in a 1992 Senate primary campaign, comparing Dianne Feinstein, the eventual winner, to tax cheat Leona Helmsley. For Simon, it was non-stop ads about his business dealings, dealings in which he was found not guilty of any wrongdoing. Still, the damage was done. Even with the ineptitude of his campaign, constant staff turnover, and a few blunders, it was amazing he lost to Davis by only 5 points. His conservative message may be tempting again, but with State Senator Tom McClintock and former baseball comissioner Peter Uberroth splitting the conservative vote, all 3 will have a tough time getting votes.

Camejo is part of the Green Party and earned 5% of the vote last time out. The Green Party is left of the Democrats on the ideological scale but third parties traditionally don't have a chance in the two-party system. He does believe that by taxing the rich even more, California would not have a budget deficit.

The Democrats' main choice is Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante. Bustamante has been a quiet lieutenant, nothing too flashy, nothing to get him in trouble. But it seems he never sees his governor often. At two different times in the past few weeks, he was asked whether he has talked to Davis and both times he's said no. And while they're both Democrats, Bustamante disagrees with Davis' raising of the vehicle license fee, which tripled the cost of registering your car. Davis maintains it was mandated by law and enacted by his budget director. Bustamante, McClintock, and various Republicans have come out against it and some are going to court to stop it. As Democrats' only major choice, Bustamante should be the front runner in a state that has more Democrats than Republicans (44%-35%). Instead, it shows how much name recognition Schwarzenegger has and how much work Bustamante has to do to push through his "No on the Recall, Yes on Bustamante" campaign.

Arianna Huffington is also in the ring as an independent. She's the former wife of Congressman Michael Huffington, who lost to Feinstein in a 1994 Senate contest, and then proclaimed he was a bisexual. Arianna is running as an independent, hoping to break the stranglehold big money has on the Capitol while pledging to spend only $10 million for her campaign.

Finally, there's Larry Flynt, founder of Hustler Magazine. He promises to bring in slot machines and use the tax revenue to raise $3 billion. What else he wants to do, I don't wanna know.

Whatever happens, by October 7, Californians probably won't care who it is, as long as he or she does something interesting.

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